As Europe enters a decisive decade, regions are facing unprecedented shifts in how people move, work, and live. The MOBI-TWIN project has released Policy Brief #3: “Anticipating regional futures: Exploring scenarios for spatial mobility and the twin transition in Europe”.
This report moves beyond current data to explore potential future trajectories, using the Regional Attractiveness Index (RAI) to model how mobility flows will interact with digital and environmental transitions over the next several years.
The Four Scenario Archetypes
Through expert Delphi surveys and stakeholder workshops, the project identified four distinct “futures” for EU regions:
- Leapfrog: Rapid advancement through innovation and digital readiness, overcoming existing structural barriers.
- Dark Horse: Unexpected success driven by niche strengths or external catalysts like new green industries.
- Snail’s Pace: Slow, uneven progress dominated by inertia and demographic decline—currently the most probable path for many regions.
- Lion’s Den: A high-risk trajectory marked by external shocks, geopolitical tensions, and economic vulnerabilities.
Insights from our Pilot Regions
The foresight exercise was tested across five diverse European territories:
- North & East Finland: Incremental progress (69% Snail’s Pace) amid geopolitical risks, with “Dark Horse” potential in renewable energy.
- Central Macedonia (Greece): High probability of slow growth (75% Snail’s Pace) due to demographic decline, but with opportunities in tech and agri-innovation.
- Lombardy (Italy): Strong institutions face policy inertia, with a “Lion’s Den” path looming if climate and cost pressures intensify.
- Groningen (the Netherlands): Gradual development (68.4% Snail’s Pace) where university growth is key to preventing rural depopulation.
- Castilla-La Mancha (Spain): Opportunities in remote work and connectivity are balanced by the need for better local services.
Moving Toward Proactive Governance
The brief concludes that the Twin Transition will not unfold uniformly. To ensure a resilient future, the report recommends:
- Integrating mobility indicators (telework intensity, migration flows) into Smart Specialization Strategies.
- Targeted investments in lagging regions to close infrastructure and skills gaps.
- Mainstreaming foresight tools within EU Cohesion policy programming post-2027.
“By embedding mobility foresight into regional policy design, the EU can move from reactive measures toward proactive, place-based transition management.”
📖 Explore the full findings in Policy Brief #3 here!
